Although the current steel market situation is flat, but opportunities are hidden. Affected by the weak expectation of resumption of production by steel mills, the steel market is easy to rise and hard to fall. Moreover, as the New Year is approaching, there has been a saying in the steel market circle that "every festival will rise" since ancient times. Superimposed on the reality of high winter reserve pricing, increased reserves, and fast pace, in the absence of major news, it is expected that the price of steel will rise steadily next week and gradually rise.
1.raw material market
Iron Ore: Up
Due to the recent rise in coke prices and strict production restrictions and sintering in Tangshan, lump ore performance is more prominent and prices are high. At present, steel companies are actively preparing warehouses in winter and improving the ratio of furnace grades. Some varieties of resources are in short supply. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly next week.
Coke: Up
The supply of coke is tightening, the steel mills have increased purchases, and the supply and demand are tight; the cost of coking coal is strongly supported, and large steel mills in Hebei have accepted price increases. Recently, the second round of coke increases may be implemented soon. It is expected that the coke market will be stable and strong next week.
Scrap: Up
At present, due to the demand for replenishment and winter storage, some steel mills have raised measures, but electric furnace steel mills will successively suspend production and holiday, and the demand for scrap steel is weak, and there is great pressure on scrap steel to continue to rise. It is expected that the scrap steel market will be stable and strong in the next week.
Pig Iron: Strong
Recently, the prices of scrap steel, ore and coke have risen, and the cost of pig iron has increased significantly. In addition, the inventory pressure of iron mills is not high, and the price of pig iron has increased. At present, the downstream demand is general, and the pig iron market is expected to remain stable next week.
2.There are several factors
1. In 2022, the scale of fixed asset investment in transportation will continue to expand, which will boost the demand for steel after the festival.
Although the national transportation fixed asset investment data in 2022 has not yet been released, various sources of information show that this year, my country's transportation fixed asset investment will highlight "moderately advanced" and achieve "effective and stable investment". At the National Transportation Work Conference in 2022, "effective and stable investment" was listed as one of the "six effective" requirements for the whole year.
2. The winter storage policies of various steel mills have been introduced. The winter storage prices are generally high, and the discounts are less, and the total winter storage volume has increased year-on-year.
Some steel mills in Shanxi have completed the first winter storage plan, and the price of the second winter storage has been raised by 50-100 yuan / ton. The steel mills that have not adopted the winter storage policy are all locked in the price policy and have no other preferential policies. At present, the total amount of winter storage orders received by steel mills in the statistical sample has reached 1.41 million tons, an increase of 55% compared with the same period last year. In addition, Shougang Changzhi cannot determine the winter storage policy, Shanxi Jianlong is still brewing, and its self-storage probability is extremely high. Up to now, the estimated amount of winter storage of construction steel in Henan is 1.04 million tons, the total amount is much higher than last year. From the statistical data, compared with the same brand in the same period last year, this year's winter storage has increased by 20%. The existing steel mills are full of orders and no longer accept external orders, and some steel mills can still accept orders, and the overall winter reserves may continue to increase.
3. The demolition of some real estate projects in Haihua Island, Hainan has revealed that real estate development investment is more standardized and rational.
At present, the supply of real estate in the first-tier cities across the country exceeds the demand, and the third- and fourth-tier cities are showing an increase. Overall, real estate is in a rational and weak situation. However, the housing market in third- and fourth-tier cities has seen steady growth because of demand support. According to statistics from the China Index Research Institute, the cumulative price increase of new houses in Xuzhou will reach 9.6% in 2021, ranking first among the top 100 cities in the country, followed by Xi'an, where house prices will increase by 9.33%.
On January 7, Beijing posted the details of the first batch of centralized land supply in 2022 early, becoming the first city in the country to launch new projects. The reporter sorted out and found that half of the 18 parcels of land have set up the sales area of existing houses, the highest premium rate is not more than 15%, and the average premium rate of the upper limit of land price is set at 7.8%.
Post time: Jan-11-2022
